PMA’s Quantitative Risk Innovation Explained
June 13, 2022
Performing schedule risk analysis has never been more rewarding. Monte Carlo simulations have become even more faithful representations of the modeled projects from systemic risks to risk calibration, benchmarking, and reference class forecasting. But one central element continues to be overlooked. As a project gets underway, activities off the critical path (most of the schedule) are often deferred to standby status in favor of other work or to balance out resource utilization. When combined with uncertainty or discrete risks, this further pushes out project completion. In this session, you’ll learn why float-use risk matters and discover the only known solution for modeling it. PMA’s approach to risk analysis is based on over 20 years of experience on more than 350 projects with combined values exceeding $50 billion.
As COO of PMA Technologies, Tim provides leadership for the design and development team and the intellectual property efforts surrounding NetPoint. Tim is a PMP with extensive project management, software development, and marketing. Tim earned his bachelor’s degree from Michigan State University and pursued the postgraduate study of project management at the University of Chicago.
Dr. Vivek Puri has significant experience planning and executing projects in both construction and information technology areas. Dr. Puri’s recent work involves research and development relating to NetPoint, NetRisk, and Schedule MD. Three innovative tools were developed in-house by PMA. His doctoral work was in the area of simulation applications for construction planning.
A negative safe float is when an activity runs by a given date, and, if it has a negative safe float, it means there is no date past it that affects project completion.
Anytime you identify a new risk or condition of the risk change.
From my experience, risk updates should be done every few months, if not every month.
No. Current CPM simulation tools cannot calculate safe float because of the way they simulate models. They come up with duration and risk analysis.
It’s more of a floating or pacing risk. NetPoint does not currently support this risk. If you split the task into two parts, you can still model it how you want.