Mitigating the Planning Fallacy (Risked Schedules—The New Normal)
Kahneman & Tversky coined the term planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios and that could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases. Dr. Gui proposes two strategies to mitigate the planning fallacy relative to project schedules, one relating to benchmarking activity durations, and the second advocates schedule risk analysis as the new normal.
In support of this strategy, Dr. Gui introduces GPM schedule risk analysis and provides a demonstrative using NetRisk, the schedule risk analysis module now available with NetPoint. This presentation was recently enhanced by Dr Gui at a GPM Bootcamp on March 8th, 2013.
See how the GPM probabilistic scheduling algorithm develops both the statistical early and late schedules, Keynote – Early and Late “P80” Dates