Keynote: Have You Identified Every Risk
July 01, 2020
Graphical Path Method, Netpoint, Presentations
Modeling Float-Use Risk in Schedule Risk Analysis
Use of float and its influence in the likelihood of completion has been overlooked in Monte Carlo schedule modeling, leading to exceedingly optimistic probabilities of completion. This Keynote illustrates how the Graphical Path Method (GPM), by modeling the risk of float use in schedule risk analysis, assists schedulers in more accurately predicting probable project finish dates.
Modeling the Risk of Speculative Float Use
- (A) Use a uniform distribution: use from 0% to 100% on every activity with a likelihood of 100%
- (B) Pace the likelihood of float use: use free float in the first 20% of project duration, use 50% total float up to 67% of project duration, and use free float in the last 33% of project duration
- (C) 100% total-float use for every activity yields the pessimistic completion risk curve
- (D) Limiting total float use in Monte Carlo modeling to safe float yields the SAFE project finish risk curve and a more reliable forecast of probable project finish dates
This innovative GPM scheduling principle allows schedulers to model the risk of float use in schedule risk assessment, leading to a more reliable forecast of probable project finish dates.
Gui Ponce de Leon PHD, PE, PMP, LEED AP
Dr. Gui is one of our nation’s foremost planning and scheduling experts. His professional experience includes roles as investor’s developer, project manager, program manager, EPC contractor planner/scheduler, and expert analyst/witness. Dr. Gui has continually pioneered innovations in project management throughout his 48-year career.