Keynote – Early and Late “P80” Dates

The CPM algorithm’s ability to develop bounding early/late dates using activity durations and logic was a new scheduling paradigm that has sustained CPM as the scheduling method of choice since 1957. However, in Monte Carlo probabilistic scheduling, CPM develops only the early completion distribution curve.

This keynote will: 1) reveal how the GPM probabilistic scheduling algorithm, by allowing activities to float in every iteration, develops both the statistical early and late schedules, unveiling early/late bounding completion distribution envelopes from which practitioners can infer more realistic 80% confidence level completion aka P80 dates; and 2) question continued reliance on CPM risk assessment tools that promote optimistic P80 dates. The hoped-for outcome

 Determining the potential criticality of each activity is a key result from the project schedule’s Monte Carlo simulation. Activity criticality is used to identify the probabilistic critical and near critical-paths. For the past 10 years, Jerry Klanac has successfully used end-node diagrams to graphically convey this information to project stakeholders. Here he illustrates the creation of an end-node diagram in NetPoint as well as further enhancement in NetRisk.

Download the full presentation’s PDF

 

Gui Ponce de Leon, PHD, PE, PMP, LEED AP – PMA Consultants

Dr. Gui is one of our nation’s foremost planning and scheduling experts. His professional experience includes roles as investor’s developer, construction manager, program manager, and EPC contractor planner/scheduler. Dr. Gui has continually pioneered innovations in project management throughout his 47-year career.

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